Selecting the appropriate sources and methodology for forecasts is paramount to the success of your strategy. Systematic scenario planning can be an effective tool to improve the reliability of forecasts.

We define a “scenario” as a coherent sequence of events and decisions that create a vivid, compelling vision of what the future could look like. We define “scenario planning” as harnessing the power of scenarios to make better strategic choices. With the right tools you can design and develop effective forecasts that dramatically improve long-term decisions.

Making such decisions requires forward-looking information that is relevant and reliable. Only looking backward or ignoring uncertainty about the future will lead to flawed decisions. Effective forecasts will include both future possibilities (scenarios) and probabilities.

• Improve strategic decision-making with enhanced forecasting methods and by leveraging scenarios to foster insight
• Examine and employ a four-step process of developing and using scenarios within a strategic decision-making process

• Discuss best practices for developing forecasting models, assessing quantitative information, and updating assessments with new information
• Identify, graphically, the primary factors to be considered in a forecasting model and the relationships among them utilizing a relevance diagram
• Parameterize the model by choosing formulas to represent projections in the model